Gilbert, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

916
FXUS65 KPSR 100455
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
955 PM MST Sat Aug 9 2025

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot conditions will continue to yield widespread Moderate to
  localized Major HeatRisk through early next week.

- The areas of Major HeatRisk through early next week will be
  concentrated particularly over the south-central AZ lower
  deserts, the Lower Colorado River Valley, and Imperial Valley
  and thus Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect through Tuesday
  evening.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue to remain
  quite limited through early next week, generally favoring the
  eastern Arizona high terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...
The latest objective analysis shows the center of the subtropical
high situated east of the region, with a southerly flow in place
across much southern and central AZ. This has resulted in moisture
levels to increase somewhat compared to the last couple days with
the latest SPC mesoanalysis depicting PWAT values ranging between
1.0-1.3 inches across much of south-central AZ with slightly
higher values across the southeast AZ. As a result of this
increase in moisture, a convectively more active day is likely
across the higher terrain areas of eastern AZ as well as southeast
AZ. Across the lower deserts, convective inhibition due to the
lack of deeper moisture continues to be an issue and will likely
limit the potential for thunderstorm activity. Depending on how
extensive the thunderstorm activity is across southeast AZ later
today, there a potential for an outflow boundary to push northward
later this evening into Pinal County, resulting in gusty winds
and maybe patchy blowing dust if the winds are strong enough. The
latest HREF gives a 10-30% chance of gusts exceeding 35 mph across
Pinal County later this evening.

Heading into Sunday, the high is projected to shift northwestward
off the northern CA coast, shifting the mid-level flow out of the
north. Moisture levels are not expected to change that much from
today. Once again, convection is expected to fire up over the
higher terrain areas, across the Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains, as well as across portions of southeast AZ. The
convection that fires up around the vicinity of the Mogollon Rim
will be moving southward into portions of southern Gila County as
well as into northeast Maricopa County but will likely be on a
weakening trend as the activity attempts to descend into the lower
elevations due to convective inhibition in place. Thus, it will
take a deep outflow or colliding outflows to get any thunderstorm
activity in the lower deserts.

In terms of temperatures through the rest of the weekend, afternoon
highs will continue to average around 110 degrees across the
south-central AZ lower deserts to between 108-113 degrees across
the western deserts with overnight low temperatures remaining
above normal. Widespread moderate HeatRisk with localized Major
HeatRisk, mainly focused over the urban areas, will continue.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/...
The latest guidance continues to favor northerly flow setting up
over much of our region by Monday in response to the passing
trough to our north. This should lower convective potential early
next week for the bulk of our area with any lingering moisture and
rain chances focused over far eastern and southeast Arizona.
Boundary layer moisture will be reduced during this time with
surface dew points dropping mostly into the 40s by Tuesday. The
ridge center that had recently formed off the coast of California
is also forecast to shift inland over California forcing heights
over our area to rise slightly. The combination of the higher
heights and lowering surface moisture is expected to help to add a
couple degrees of warming Monday into Tuesday with highs likely
reaching 108-114 degrees with the hottest temperatures focused
across southeast California and western Arizona.

Starting Wednesday, ensemble guidance shows another trough
entering the Pacific Northwest while the ridge begins to weaken
over our region. The ridge is also expected to shift eastward
setting up somewhere to our northeast which should eventually
bring back southeasterly to our region, maybe by Thursday.
Despite some lingering model uncertainty, the overall trends
during the latter half of next week favor increasing moisture
followed by a likely return of monsoon rain chances by around next
Thursday or Friday. NBM PoPs continue to show this uptrend in rain
chances later next week, but given its still nearly a week away
nothing is for certain. Temperatures are also expected to begin to
gradually lower later next week, potentially falling back into
the normal range by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0455Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Bit of an unconventional TAF period is expected, with the main
concerns being gusty outflow winds early tonight. Guidance
continues to point toward a transient boundary approaching from
the SE, with the timing adjusted back about an hour (07-09Z). This
outflow will bring gusts around 25 kts and perhaps some reduced
visibilities due to blowing dust (especially at KIWA), but mention
of lower VIS has been excluded from the TAFs at this time because
of too much uncertainty. Once winds relax they will eventually
turn more to the E/NE late tonight before switch out of the W/NW
much earlier than usual (14-15Z). However, if this outflow never
materializes, or fails to make through the metro, a continuation
of more of a diurnal pattern should be anticipated, with E and W
shifts occurring closer to their usual time windows. Generally
clear skies early tonight will give way to FEW-SCT mid and high
level clouds through the remainder of the period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation weather concerns are expected over the next 24 hours
under generally clear skies. Winds at KIPL will generally remain
out of the SE through Sunday afternoon, while KBLH will continue
to see more S`rly winds with some occasional afternoon gusts
around 20 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Above normal temperatures will continue into early next week with
slightly elevated moisture levels providing mostly eastern Arizona
high terrain chances (10-25%) for showers and thunderstorms.
Chances of wetting rainfall will remain below 10% resulting in
enhanced chances of dry lightning and new fire starts. Minimum
afternoon humidity levels will mostly range between 15-20% with
fair to good overnight recoveries. Winds will retain an afternoon
upslope component with gusts to 15-20 mph common. During the
latter half of next week the pattern may shift toward a more
favorable monsoon moisture pattern increasing chances for storms
while also potentially dropping temperatures into the near normal
range.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ530-532-534-
     537>544-546-548>551-553>555-559.

CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ562-563-566-
     567-569-570.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lojero
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman